News Editor
By Dr. Idris Keana
In the theatre of Nigerian politics, where performance often overshadows planning, recent events surrounding the opposition’s tactical engagement with the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) and pivot to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) merit closer analysis. What many observers dismissed as confusion was in fact a masterclass in political misdirection.
The coalition’s initial visibility around ADA served a deliberate purpose: to provoke a reaction. It succeeded. Operatives within the All Progressives Congress (APC), led by President Tinubu’s media and political surrogates, responded with ridicule and legal maneuvering. They mocked ADA as unserious and scrambled to duplicate the platform in a bid to neutralize what they assumed was the coalition’s strategy.
But therein lay the trap.
While the ruling party concentrated its firepower on ADA, the opposition had already begun aligning with ADC—an existing party with functional infrastructure, a growing national presence, and the administrative muscle needed for 2027. This was not improvisation. It was intentional.
Drawing from principles in military strategy, particularly Sun Tzu’s Art of War, the coalition “appeared where the enemy must defend” but moved “where it was not expected.” ADA was never the battlefield. It was the bait. ADC was always the real play.
This is also reminiscent of chess strategy—the “poisoned pawn”—where a player sacrifices a seemingly vulnerable piece to lure their opponent into a trap. The coalition offered ADA. The Tinubu camp took it. Meanwhile, the real coalition-building, policy drafting, and structural consolidation were happening quietly under ADC’s umbrella.
Interestingly, the APC’s overreaction may be more telling than its rhetoric. You don’t expend energy on a joke unless it unsettles you. Tinubu’s recent statements in Nasarawa, paired with his supporters’ mockery of ADA, indicate that the emergence of a credible opposition coalition is being felt—perhaps feared.
As Machiavelli once wrote, “It is double pleasure to deceive the deceiver.” In this case, the coalition masked its hand, performed its decoy, and left the ruling party chasing shadows. What looked like a blunder now reads as an opening gambit.
Whether the ADC alliance can transform strategic maneuvering into electoral advantage remains to be seen. But what is certain is that the first real move has been made. And it was made with precision.
